Substitute
Which profits are at risk?
AI competes with businesses paid to think or coordinate. The risk is owning the work that becomes cheap to copy.
Research
When Intelligence Is Free, what will you wish you owned?
AI transforms the economy while eroding the profits of businesses we own today.
I research where those profits move next and how to invest through the transition.
The next decade · Where to look
Four ways value moves
Amplify
What does cheap intelligence need?
More AI use needs more power, machines and verification. I look for suppliers that retain pricing power as use grows.
Reprice
What cannot be made abundant?
Land, rights, attention and scarce monetary assets remain limited. I look for owners that capture the extra value.
Unlock
What becomes a viable business?
Cheaper cognition makes new services and markets viable. The next generation of companies emerges in these markets.
The AI capital cycle · Reviewed quarterly
Every technology boom borrows from the future
Capital finances the buildout before its returns are proven. I track that gap to judge when to add exposure, wait or cut risk.
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Buildout
Capital races to finance
and build new AI capacity -
Digestion
Cash flows must justify
the capital already spent -
Diffusion
Cheap intelligence reshapes
businesses across the economy
Investments
See what I own and why
The public book records the positions, returns and reasoning behind each monthly review.
Explore the public book →